LATEST
What's moving now
Headlines from eight newsrooms, every new public poll and every prediction-market swing, in one wire that refreshes itself.
LiveConnecting…
Until polls open · Nov 3
Headlines link to the original publishers and are auto-tagged with transparent keyword rules. Polls: Vote-Scope index (two-party toplines only). Markets: Polymarket state Senate winner markets that moved 3+ points in 24 hours.
FORECAST HISTORY
How the forecast has moved
The forecast today against October 9: chamber odds, the races that moved most, races that changed favourite and the handicappers' rating changes.
MP-26 · CHAMBER ODDS
Chance of a Democratic majority
2 archived runs
VOTE-SCOPE BENCHMARK
Mean Democratic House seats
The benchmark the model starts from, last 49 runs. 218 is a majority.
BIGGEST MOVES
Races that moved most
CO-04R+0.7 → R+1.946% → 40% D−6 ptsNY-21R+6.2 → R+4.820% → 26% D+6 ptsMinnesota SenateD+4.2 → D+5.271% → 76% D+5 ptsIowa SenateD+0.4 → D+0.052% → 50% D−2 ptsKY-06D+0.7 → D+0.454% → 52% D−2 ptsMaine SenateD+1.1 → D+1.356% → 57% D+1 ptsMichigan SenateD+4.3 → D+4.572% → 73% D+1 ptsCA-48D+11.9 → D+12.194% → 95% D+1 ptsFL-09D+1.6 → D+1.658% → 59% D+1 ptsOH-07R+3.6 → R+3.632% → 31% D−1 ptsSD-00R+14.7 → R+14.73% → 2% D−1 ptsWI-06R+12.0 → R+12.05% → 6% D+1 pts
HANDICAPPERS
Rating changes
Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato have not changed any rating in this window.