U.S. HOUSE
218 seats for a majority
ExpertsCook · Inside Elections · Sabato
226 · 13 · 196D · toss-up · R
—
PollsGeneric ballot
National polls do not translate into seats on their own
D+7.4generic ballot
—
MY TWO MODELS
PREDICTIONS · HOUSE AND SENATE
Who will control Congress? Five readings, side by side.
The expert raters, the markets and the polls are independent sources; MP-26 and Census-26 are my two models. Here they sit together, so you can see where they agree and where they don't.
U.S. SENATE
51 seats for a majority
ExpertsCook · Inside Elections · Sabato
49 · 5 · 46D · toss-up · R
—
PollsLeader of each state's polls
50 · 446 races without polls
—
MY TWO MODELS
Experts: consensus of Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato; the Senate counts the seats not up this year. Markets: Polymarket's control price. Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). MP-26: run of November 1, chance of a Democratic majority and expected seats with the range of 80% of its simulations. Census-26: run of October 19, same measures. The vertical line marks the majority.
RACE BY RACE
Where the five readings agree, and where they don't
| Contest | Experts | Polls | Market | MP-26 | Census-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KansasHamilton – MarshallThey split | Toss-up | D+2.717 polls | 52% D | 51% RR+0.1 | 81% RR+11.7 |
| IowaTurek – HinsonThey split | Toss-up | D+1.133 polls | 58% R | 55% DD+0.9 | 79% RR+10.6 |
| AlaskaPeltola – Sullivan | Tilt D | D+4.715 polls | 74% D | 56% DD+1.2 | 53% DD+0.9 |
| OhioBrown – Husted · specialThey split | Toss-up | D+3.232 polls | 74% D | 59% DD+1.6 | 56% RR+1.9 |
| TexasTalarico – PaxtonThey split | Toss-up | D+2.767 polls | 71% D | 62% DD+2.2 | 55% RR+1.6 |
| South CarolinaAndrews – Graham | Lean R | R+1.714 polls | 74% R | 68% RR+3.6 | 78% RR+10.2 |
| MaineJackson – Collins | Toss-up | D+2.629 polls | 68% D | 72% DD+4.3 | 90% DD+17.2 |
| NebraskaOsborn – Ricketts | Lean R | R+2.713 polls | 74% R | 75% RR+5.2 | 92% RR+18.7 |
| MichiganEl-Sayed – Rogers | Tilt D | D+4.154 polls | 82% D | 76% DD+5.3 | 71% DD+7.2 |
| FloridaNixon – Moody · special | Likely R | R+6.026 polls | 91% R | 78% RR+5.8 | 52% RR+0.6 |
| LouisianaDavis – Letlow | Likely R | R+4.53 polls | 91% R | 79% RR+6.1 | 84% RR+13.3 |
| MontanaBankhead – Alme | Safe R | R+8.210 polls | 100% R | 80% RR+6.2 | 85% RR+13.7 |
| MinnesotaFlanagan – Tafoya | Lean D | D+7.018 polls | 93% D | 88% DD+8.9 | 78% DD+10.2 |
| New HampshirePappas – Sununu | Lean D | D+7.719 polls | 94% D | 89% DD+9.2 | 91% DD+17.8 |
| MississippiColom – Hyde-Smith | Likely R | R+5.53 polls | 88% R | 90% RR+9.7 | 89% RR+15.9 |
| North CarolinaCooper – Whatley | Likely D | D+10.932 polls | 98% D | 91% DD+10.1 | 52% DD+0.5 |
| GeorgiaOssoff – Collins | Likely D | D+9.816 polls | 97% D | 94% DD+11.4 | 68% DD+6.2 |
| IdahoFleming – Risch | Safe R | R+5.74 polls | 100% R | 98% RR+15.5 | 99% RR+29.7 |
