Midterm
Pulse
2026
US
Elections
by Jorge Garcelán
Races
Races: map and list
All 470 races: map, list and state by state
Predictions
Experts, markets, polls and my two models, side by side
Key races
The races that decide Congress, with four readings
Candidates
Every 2026 nominee
Models
MP-26
Forecast
House and Senate odds from polls and fundamentals
How it works
The model, stage by stage
Validation
How it would have done in 2018 and 2022
Sources
Data, pipeline and status
Census-26
Forecast
House and Senate from demographics alone, no polls
How it works
What it reads, twin districts, play the model
Validation
House and Senate 2016–2024, predicted blind
Census vs polls
Where demographics and MP-26 disagree
Limits
Gerrymanders, candidates and the size of the wave
Sources
Data and pipeline
Data
Polls
Generic ballot, Senate and House polls
Markets
Prediction markets against the model
Money
Who raised the most and where it comes from
Latest
Headlines, new polls, market swings and what moved
Understand
How the midterms work
Congress, majorities, how the vote works
Geography
Seven axes of the American vote, county by county
The Latino vote
Where Latino voters live and which close races they sit in
History
Seat changes and past cycles
Gerrymandering
How drawing lines decides elections
Glossary
Every term, in plain words
About
Who builds Midterm Pulse
Tools
Playground
Scenarios, map builder and data lab
Stream mode
Full-screen scenes for OBS
Menu
Election night
Search
⌘K
EN
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Candidates
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Kansas Senate
Graham
DG
L
U.S. SENATE · KANSAS
David
Graham
Libertarian
Challenger
Kansas Senate →
Challenging Roger Marshall (R).
Summary
Biography
Record
1
Funding
Sources
The race at a glance
Full race profile →
Cook
Toss-up
IE
Toss-up
Sabato
Toss-up
On the same ballot
Adam Hamilton
Democratic
Roger Marshall
Republican
Incumbent
Quick facts
Party
Libertarian
Congress, general elections
0 won of 1
